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Time To Be Careful, My 2 Cents by Mike Simonato

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Written by: Mike Simonato, Ontario Presenter: “Investing for the Long Term, presented to the Feb. 6, 2021 International Online Forum, you can watch by CLICKING HERE. 

As I have written before, I felt April to June was going to be a crucial time not only for the economy but also for our quality of life. As we reach the end of June, here is what I’m seeing:

The next 30 days are going to be a make or break time for both of the above. Here is what is going on and only time will tell how it all ends:

  1. Nobody at any level can find any quality workers at any level from restaurant workers to executives.  It is reported that 40% of current workers are considering quitting. I’m actually shocked at the key execs etc that are quitting. This period of time is being referred to as “The Great Resignation”
  1. Inflation is high. USA Yr over Yr jump biggest in history, Canada biggest jump in a decade. Those most affected are lower-wage earners and those with intermittent income sources. (Govt feels this is temporary)
  2. No consistency on reopening ie Ontario Slow. Alberta wide open.  Ontario Waterloo will not move to Stage 2 of reopening and Ontario has added 3 more hot spots.

I met with another doctor this week and asked her feelings and again highlighted people aren’t taking this seriously enough and need to get vaccinated, wear masks, social distance and minimize gatherings. (From what I see, nobody got the memo)

  1. Delta variant cases jumped 66% in one week.  If we end up in a 4th lockdown it will be devastating not only to the economy but also people’s mental health.

Brazil, and India continue to suffer and now Russia having numbers soaring.  Canada decided to let the Montreal Canadians cross the border to play in the Stanely Cup Semi Finals. Now their coach has Covid.

  1. Lumber Prices are falling fast from 1700 to 900 making hoarders now sellers
  2. Big money companies are buying huge numbers of homes including entire neighbourhoods in both Canada and USA.
  3. Cyber Criminals no longer using Bitcoin. Switched to Monero so they can’t be tracked
  4. Asians are leaving North America in droves due to mistreatment and heading back to Asia.  This will affect not only from a worker standpoint but importantly because they spend a fortune in the economy.
  5. Portland, Oregon  Entire sector of police quitting due to 1 officer being indicted. The officer I talked to re my accident let it be known they have had it with the disrespect they have to deal with
  6. Finally, Alberta is now a Hotspot for Tapeworms that can cause fatal tumours

As always nothing more than my 2 cents and I hope it’s of value and interest

Now for the Markets  Every market except Australia (Bearish Divergence) are heading to a possible  C/DN, Confirmed Down  (USA could come as early as Tuesday)

USA

DOW JONES:         Price fell below the 79 SMA  RT below 1 and big selling volume on Friday

NASDAQ:                Price held up relatively well but failed again at resistance

S&P 500:                 Price fell hard but RT still above 1

MKT TIMING:          Price fell hard as all 3 indicators

READ Views,  Strategy (heading for C/DN)

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CANADA

PTSE:                   Price fell to the 20 SMA  Big selling vol on Friday  Watch next week to see if selling continues

VENTURE:           Fell back below the 79 SMA  Strong selling all week

MKT TIMING:       Price pulled back but no real concerns yet  All 3 indicators also fell especially the BSR  RT below 1

READ Views (How does Stan keep doing it)  Heading to possible C/DN  Earnings Indicator rose

EUROPE:     Read Views   Strategy (Heading to possible C/DN)

BRITAIN:      Read Views   Strategy (heading to possible C/DN)

AUSTRALIA  Bearish Divergence

Click to Enlarge

WARNING:  We all have or are working on developing good safe trading systems.  The problem is we have never had a market that is so strongly manipulated mostly in a bad way ie a Tweet can make a stock or sector or industry go up or down huge numbers and up one day and down the next. We saw another example of this during a press conference during the European Soccer Championships. Cristiando Ronaldo  (who thinks way too much of himself) seemed to snub Coco Cola and as a result there was a big sell off in the stock. Nothing changed with regards to earnings/ profit margins/ growth etc but because one person implied a dislike for one of their products $Billions of value disappeared quickly.

With this happening more and more in the past 15 months please be careful out there and stay safe everyone.

 

 

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